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Battlefield Gujarat - Part 4. Results of the survey. Vote share: 1) BJP vote share expected to be around 48-49 %. 2) Congress vote share expected to be around 37-39 %. Seats: 1) BJP likely to win between 112 to 124 seats. 2) Congress likely to win between 49 to 58 seats. Region wise break up: Saurashtra: Total seats: 54 BJP.               27-32 Congress.     22-25 North Gujarat: Total seats:. 32 BJP.                13 - 18 Congress.       14 -18 Central Gujarat: Total seats:.  61 BJP.                 45-52 Congress.       9-15 South Gujarat: Total seats:.     35 BJP.                   26-30 Congress.          5-9

Battlefield Gujarat - Part 3.. Findings from the survey: 1) People have taken Demonetization in stride. 2) Rumblings about GST are there but not of the extent to convert votes against BJP. 3) The Patidar factor will help Congress marginally but it will be offset by Shankarsinh Waghela's exit. 4) The Alpesh Thakor and Pravin Mewàni are hyped up by the media and don't have the capacity to win seats for the Congress. 5) Unrest or unhappiness about Govt decisions do not mean a shift of vote towards Congress. 6) Pride that a Gujarati is PM exists strongly amongst people. 7) In Urban as well as rural areas people still believe in Narendra Modi and ready to give him time. 8) BJP's disadvantage of having a face less CM in Vijay Rupani totally offset by the Congress not having any leader of consequence in the state. 9) Rahul Gandhi unable to connect with the audience inspite of his new aggressive style of campaigning. People clearly don't believe him. 1

Gujarat Elections – Battle for Gujarat - Part 2 How will the Patidar agitation impact BJP.. In 2012, Keshubhai Patel rebelled against BJP, and contested elections under Gujarat Parivartan Party. Though it bagged only 3.6 percent vote share, it led to the defeat of BJP candidates in 23 seats in Saurashtra and Kutch. Keshubhai was a Leuva Patel. At that time, the media and opposition were hoping that he would cut into BJP’s votes and help the Congress. It did help to a certain extent, with the BJP losing as many as 25 seats marginally. This time, instead of Keshubhai, there is Hardik Patel – a Kadva Patel representing the Patidar’s. Patidar quota demand: The influential Patidar community’s protests to grant them other backward community (OBC) status is probably the biggest challenge the BJP government faces in its two-decade rule. The state government has announced a commission and a corporation for communities outside the purview of reservation. But Patidar leader Hardik Pat

The Battle for Gujarat. The EC has declared the dates for the Gujarat elections. They will be held on December 9 and 14 with results on December 18, 2017. Like in 2012, we at Alert Citizens Forum have conducted an extensive pre poll survey of the political scenario in Gujarat, which will be presented to you in 3 parts. Today is Part no. 1: Review of the 2012 elction result: In 2012, BJP got 47.9 percent of the total valid votes polled. The Congress was way behind with a vote share of 38.9 percent. Of the other parties, Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) got 3.6 percent, Janata Dal (United), JDU, 0.6 percent and NCP 1 percent. Share of ST and SC Seats Of the 182 seats in Assembly, 27 seats are reserved for the scheduled tribes (ST) and 13 for the scheduled castes (SC). Of the ST seats, BJP has won only 10; of the remaining 17, 16 have gone to INC and 1 to JDU Low margin seats In 2012 elections, 36 seats have been decided by margins of less than 5,000. Of these, BJP has won only 13