Battlefield Gujarat - Part 3.. Findings from the survey:

Battlefield Gujarat - Part 3..

Findings from the survey:

1) People have taken Demonetization in stride.

2) Rumblings about GST are there but not of the extent to convert votes against BJP.

3) The Patidar factor will help Congress marginally but it will be offset by Shankarsinh Waghela's exit.

4) The Alpesh Thakor and Pravin Mewàni are hyped up by the media and don't have the capacity to win seats for the Congress.

5) Unrest or unhappiness about Govt decisions do not mean a shift of vote towards Congress.

6) Pride that a Gujarati is PM exists strongly amongst people.

7) In Urban as well as rural areas people still believe in Narendra Modi and ready to give him time.

8) BJP's disadvantage of having a face less CM in Vijay Rupani totally offset by the Congress not having any leader of consequence in the state.

9) Rahul Gandhi unable to connect with the audience inspite of his new aggressive style of campaigning. People clearly don't believe him.

10) The TINA factor ( There is no alternative), firmly in favour of BJP.

11) Inspite of all this, the BJP vote share will still hover around 48-49 %, with the Congress around 37-39 %.

12) Urban Gujarat still solidly with BJP.

13) Congress will get support primarily from Tribal, Muslims and to an extent from Dalits.

14) BJPs top leadership emphasis on Gujarat should not be treated as their weakness but determination to ensure that they don't go below their 2012 tally.

BJP has huge stakes in this industrialized state of India, which has remained it's bastion for the past two decades.

However, this being the first election after Modi became PM and shifted out of Gujarat, the party'is leaving no stone unturned to preserve his legacy.

After reading the first 2 parts it requires no rocket science to know who is likely to win this election.

However, it is necessary to understand why BJP is likely to win a record 6th time.

Reasons of winning:

a) Home state of PM Narendra Modi. BJP President Amitbhai Shah personally supervising the campaign.
b) People pride in the “Gujarat model of development”.
c) More number of urban voters, who are solidly with the BJP.
d) Opposition Congress is weak and still has not found any candidate who can provide a strong leadership.
e) The triumvirate that Rahul Gandhi is relying upon is untested and are by no yardstick, mass leaders.
f) Caste equations in all regions and constituencies are well balanced and good homework has been done by the BJP in this regard.
g) 24 hrs electricity supply almost in 99% part of Gujarat.
h) More no. of industries compared to any other states so definitely BJP is doing well in terms of Jobs, growth, labour employment, good roads and overall state development.
i) Post 2002 there has been not a single communal riot in state. In fact, now social harmony prevails.
j) Safe and secure State ( in Navratri women can roam freely even at 2 AM in the night.)
k) Sound Agriculture and framers policy leading to a balanced ' Rurban' society. (Rural-Urban).
l) Bullet train and Metro being touted as USP's of BJP's development agenda.
m) Most important - no corruption charges on anyone in the past 2 decades.
n) The voters don't trust Rahul Gandhi and Congress.

The actual result of the survey is being given in Part 4, as this detailed analysis was necessary so that readers understand the effort behind the survey and the psyche of the Gujarat voter.

Results of seats in Part 4.

(End of Part 3).