Dayanand's World

निवडणूक प्रचारा निमित्ताने इंदोर ला जाणे झाले. तेथील हा अविस्मरणीय अनुभव. जन्माला यावं आणि एकदा तरी इंदौरला जाऊन सराफा आणि ५६ दुकानांच्या पदार्थांचा मनसोक्त आस्वाद घ्यावा... ते जर जमलं नाही तर आपलं आयुष्य फुक्कट वाया गेलं असं समजावं आणि धोकटी खांद्याला अडकवून वाट चालायला सुरुवात करावी...    पैलं म्हणजे इंदौरी पोहे... कोथिंबीर, बारीक इंदौरी शेव, ओलं खोबरं आणि डाळिंबाचे दाणे पसरलेले...  नंतर विकास स्वीट्सची टमटमीत फुगलेली एक दाल कचौरी आणि एक आलू कचौरी खावी आणि तिथंच भल्यामोठ्या लोखंडी कढईत असं झक्कासपैकी ऊकळत असलेले, वरुन असं लालबुंद केशर तरंगत असलेले, बदाम, पिस्ते, काजू भरपूर असलेले, चार चमचे दाट केशरी साय ग्लासात वरुन  पांघरलेले केसरिया दूध ग्लासभर प्यावे...  जोशींचा हवेत फेकून परत झेललेल्या दहिवड्याला मोक्ष द्यावा...  हे जोशी, एकाच हाताच्या प्रत्येक बोटाची चिमूट करुन त्या पाच चिमूटीत पाच प्रकारचे मसाले पकडून... एकेक करत दह्यावर सोडतात आणि अशी मस्त नक्षी बनवतात... (जसं सीसीडी मधे कॉफीवर नक्षी बनवतात ना तसं)... जोश...

*My 10 commandments for the BJP*   Last couple of days we are watching Exit polls on many different news channels.   There are no surprises - call it Tsunamo or Shahnami or whatever.  Even the worst case scenario numbers tell us that BJP is in for next 10 years (not 5).  Never mind whether the country has progressed or not, this also indicates that BJP has progressed from being a Tenant to a Flat Owner to a Bungalow Owner.    As an opposition party prior to 2014, it was expected that BJP would complain about everything about the then Government, much like the Tenant who would complain about everything from orientation of the house to lake of space for oversized refrigerators.    From 2014 onwards they became flat owners  and yet there were complaints ranging from water supply downtime to gully boys playing cricket.  Now as owners of a bungalow on a 1 acre estate, all such complaints are annulled because it is...

Why numbers differ so much in Exit Polls?  As a professional who has been doing various surveys for past 10 years,  people often ask me this question.  One of the main reason for this is faulty analysis.  It’s all about doing Hasty generalization and rule of small numbers. It includes some sort of statistics and some sort of psychology. For India, in layman’s terms, this is how exit poll is calculated:- Surveyor is allotted a particular constituency and he is supposed to  ask voters whom they voted. The diversity like language, age, gender and religion have to be take in calculations. They are then counted as representative of that constituency; vote share is taken into account and then prediction is done. But here comes the villain and that is rule of small numbers. It states that  small sample tends to show extreme results. Let me explain in detail how it works:- Suppose in some constituency, youth consist of 60% of total popula...