Dayanand's World

ALERT CITIZENS FORUM OF INDIA 2nd and final survey of Gujarat Elections. BJP SET FOR ITS BIGGEST EVER WIN IN GUJARAT. . The temperature has gone up this winter as the Gujarat state assembly elections are just 8 days away. With no formidable third front, it’s a BJP vs Congress straight battle. As the fight is intense and clamor is high, Alert Citizens Forum have adopted a “ vote share vis a vis seat conversion methodology” to assess who will win how many seats. This method is adopted here because it is a direct contest between the two-major political parties. We have forecast the vote share for this election based on the Modi wave (increase/decrease of vote percentage for the parties in the 2014 general election as compared to 2009) and other prevailing social-economic factors. This predicted vote share is multiplied with the average of the conversion ratio to get the projected seat share. Data on election outcomes like vote share, number of seats have been sourced f...

2 nd and final survey of Gujarat Elections. ( Part 4) Maturity of the Indian voter. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s historic victory in India’s 2014 general election was a watershed in the behavior of the Indian voter. Now after 3 years, the reality is more nuanced. On some parameters, like voting based on economic and ethnic considerations, there were discernible changes. However, the evidence from earlier election results suggests these shifts were well under way before 2014. The voter behavior started to change after 2012 – I dare say, after Modi’s 3 consecutive victory in Gujarat. For the first time after losing power in 2004, the BJP discovered a leader whose popularity transcended outside his state and spread Pan India. For the voter, fed up with 15 years of coalitions in the country and sometimes in states, they found a credible leader whom they could repose their faith into. Modi was the new hero across the country, who caught the imagination of everyone. The M...