The Battle for Gujarat.
The Battle for Gujarat.
The EC has declared the dates for the Gujarat elections. They will be held on December 9 and 14 with results on December 18, 2017.
Like in 2012, we at Alert Citizens Forum have conducted an extensive pre poll survey of the political scenario in Gujarat, which will be presented to you in 3 parts.
Like in 2012, we at Alert Citizens Forum have conducted an extensive pre poll survey of the political scenario in Gujarat, which will be presented to you in 3 parts.
Today is Part no. 1:
Review of the 2012 elction result:
In 2012, BJP got 47.9 percent of the total valid votes polled. The Congress was way behind with a vote share of 38.9 percent. Of the other parties, Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) got 3.6 percent, Janata Dal (United), JDU, 0.6 percent and NCP 1 percent.
Share of ST and SC Seats
Of the 182 seats in Assembly, 27 seats are reserved for the scheduled tribes (ST) and 13 for the scheduled castes (SC). Of the ST seats, BJP has won only 10; of the remaining 17, 16 have gone to INC and 1 to JDU
Low margin seats
In 2012 elections, 36 seats have been decided by margins of less than 5,000. Of these, BJP has won only 13, while INC has got 21 and GPP and NCP have each got 1 seat. Among these 36, 4 seats have been decided by margins of less than 1000 and, of these,INC has won 3 and BJP only 1.
BJP had clearly lost disproportionately in the seats that were decided by narrow margins.
Region-wise Results:
Kutch Region (BJP 5, Congress 1)
Of the 6 constituencies in Kutch region, BJP got 5 and Congress 1. The victory margin for Congress is less than 10,000 while GPP has garnered nearly 20 thousand votes. Of the votes polled in 2012, BJP got 45.4 percent, INC about 40 percent and GPP another 5 percent. In the absence of GPP in the fray, BJP would have won all 6 seats. Gandhidham in Kutch is a reserved SC seat; the seat won by BJP by a margin more than 20,000.
North Gujarat (BJP 13, Congress 14)
In this region, comprising of Banaskantha, Mahesana, Patan and Sabarkantha districts, adjoining south Rajasthan, BJP lost heavily BJP has done particularly badly in Banaskantha and Sabarkantha.. In Banaskantha, it won only 4 of the 9 seats.
Of the total votes polled in the region in 2012, BJP got 43 percent; the Congress 44 percent. NCP, which contested from 2 seats in the region, has got a substantial vote share of 1.8 percent. The showing of NCP in Vav of Banaskantha, was particularly good, where it polled more than 30,000 votes, ensuring the defeat of Congress.. Vav was won by the BJP with a margin of about 12,000 votes.
GPP, which had put up candidates in all seats, has obtained a vote share of 1.35 percent in the region. But its showing in the region was significant only in two constituencies, Becharaji of Mahesana and Kankrej of Banaskantha. GPP polled nearly 14,000 votes in Becharaji; the seat won by BJP, though with a thin margin of about 6500 votes. In Kankrej, GPP polled about 7500 votes; the seat was lost by BJP by just 600 votes.
The region had 3 ST seats, all of which have gone to Congress.Of the 3 SC seats in the region, two were won by Congress and 1 by BJP.
North Gujarat region, where the BJP has fared so poorly, is also among the least urbanised in the state with an urbanisation ratio of 17.6 percent compared to the state average of 42.6 percent as per thel figures of Census 2011. Urbanisation ratio of Banaskantha and Sabarkantha is even lower at 13.3 and 14.5 percent, respectively. Sabarkantha also has substantial ST presence of 20.2 percent.
Central Gujarat (BJP 45, Congress 25, Others 3) Central Gujarat, as it is usually defined, is a vast region comprising Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Anand, Kheda, Panchmahals, Dahod, Vadodara, Bharuch and Narmada districts; and, a total of 73 seats. In this region, BJP had done well. Of the total votes polled in the region, BJP got 49.8 percent; Congress about 39 percent, GPP about 2 percent, NCP and JDU about 1 percent each.
This region has an urbanization ratio of 46.2 percent compared to the state average of 42.6. Parts of this region are among the most urbanised in the state and there BJP has done even better.
Sub region performances:
a) Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar (BJP 19, INC 7)
These two districts form the capital region of Gujarat, have 26 seats between them. Of 26 seats BJP won 19 and INC 7. Of the total votes polled in the sub-region, BJP got 57 percent, while Congress got only 36 percent. Of the 7 seats that Congress won in this region, 4 were decided with narrow margins. The margin in Kalol was only 343 and in Dehgam, 2,297. Sanand and Dariapur of Ahmedabad, won by Congress with low margins of 4,148 and 2,621, respectively.
BJP, on the other hand, won Ghatlodia with a margin of more than a lakh and Maninagar by more than 86 thousand. There were scary results too - Bapunagar of Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar North, by narrow margins of less than 5,000. GPP had put up candidates in many constituencies in this region, but its presence has not been of much significance anywhere, except perhaps in Kalol, where the 543 votes that it has polled are more than the margin of defeat for BJP.
This sub-region, is highly urbanised. The ratio of urbanisation for Gandhinagar-Ahmedabad belt is 77.5 percent.
b) Anand-Kheda (BJP 4, Congress 9, NCP 1)
Congress has deep roots in this sub-region of Central Gujarat. BJP won 4, Congress 9 and NCP 1. Of the total votes polled in the region, BJP got 43.6 percent and Congress 44.3 percent. NCP, which contested 2 seats got 3.2 percent. GPP has got 1.7 percent of the vote.Margins of victory were very narrow for several seats in this sub-region. This region has no ST or SC seat. Urban ratio of the region is 26.4 percent. This makes it among the less urbanised parts of the state.
In all, The BJP won 17 out of 21 seats in Ahmedabad district, 16 out of 18 seats in Surat district and 10 out of 13 seats in Baroda district. In Bharuch district, the BJP had won 4 and the JDU 1. In Bhavnagar district, the BJP won eight seats against the Congress's one. The Congress did well in Sabarkantha district where it bagged six seats against the BJP's one and in Kheda district where it won five seats against the BJP's two. In Banaskantha, the Congress won five seats while the BJP won four. Both the parties fought closely in districts like Rajkot, Junagadh and Valsad. The GPP won a seat each in Junagadh and Amreli districts. The NCP won in Porabandar and Anand. Savli constituency in Anand district went to the Independent.
In 2012, BJP got 47.9 percent of the total valid votes polled. The Congress was way behind with a vote share of 38.9 percent. Of the other parties, Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) got 3.6 percent, Janata Dal (United), JDU, 0.6 percent and NCP 1 percent.
Share of ST and SC Seats
Of the 182 seats in Assembly, 27 seats are reserved for the scheduled tribes (ST) and 13 for the scheduled castes (SC). Of the ST seats, BJP has won only 10; of the remaining 17, 16 have gone to INC and 1 to JDU
Low margin seats
In 2012 elections, 36 seats have been decided by margins of less than 5,000. Of these, BJP has won only 13, while INC has got 21 and GPP and NCP have each got 1 seat. Among these 36, 4 seats have been decided by margins of less than 1000 and, of these,INC has won 3 and BJP only 1.
BJP had clearly lost disproportionately in the seats that were decided by narrow margins.
Region-wise Results:
Kutch Region (BJP 5, Congress 1)
Of the 6 constituencies in Kutch region, BJP got 5 and Congress 1. The victory margin for Congress is less than 10,000 while GPP has garnered nearly 20 thousand votes. Of the votes polled in 2012, BJP got 45.4 percent, INC about 40 percent and GPP another 5 percent. In the absence of GPP in the fray, BJP would have won all 6 seats. Gandhidham in Kutch is a reserved SC seat; the seat won by BJP by a margin more than 20,000.
North Gujarat (BJP 13, Congress 14)
In this region, comprising of Banaskantha, Mahesana, Patan and Sabarkantha districts, adjoining south Rajasthan, BJP lost heavily BJP has done particularly badly in Banaskantha and Sabarkantha.. In Banaskantha, it won only 4 of the 9 seats.
Of the total votes polled in the region in 2012, BJP got 43 percent; the Congress 44 percent. NCP, which contested from 2 seats in the region, has got a substantial vote share of 1.8 percent. The showing of NCP in Vav of Banaskantha, was particularly good, where it polled more than 30,000 votes, ensuring the defeat of Congress.. Vav was won by the BJP with a margin of about 12,000 votes.
GPP, which had put up candidates in all seats, has obtained a vote share of 1.35 percent in the region. But its showing in the region was significant only in two constituencies, Becharaji of Mahesana and Kankrej of Banaskantha. GPP polled nearly 14,000 votes in Becharaji; the seat won by BJP, though with a thin margin of about 6500 votes. In Kankrej, GPP polled about 7500 votes; the seat was lost by BJP by just 600 votes.
The region had 3 ST seats, all of which have gone to Congress.Of the 3 SC seats in the region, two were won by Congress and 1 by BJP.
North Gujarat region, where the BJP has fared so poorly, is also among the least urbanised in the state with an urbanisation ratio of 17.6 percent compared to the state average of 42.6 percent as per thel figures of Census 2011. Urbanisation ratio of Banaskantha and Sabarkantha is even lower at 13.3 and 14.5 percent, respectively. Sabarkantha also has substantial ST presence of 20.2 percent.
Central Gujarat (BJP 45, Congress 25, Others 3) Central Gujarat, as it is usually defined, is a vast region comprising Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Anand, Kheda, Panchmahals, Dahod, Vadodara, Bharuch and Narmada districts; and, a total of 73 seats. In this region, BJP had done well. Of the total votes polled in the region, BJP got 49.8 percent; Congress about 39 percent, GPP about 2 percent, NCP and JDU about 1 percent each.
This region has an urbanization ratio of 46.2 percent compared to the state average of 42.6. Parts of this region are among the most urbanised in the state and there BJP has done even better.
Sub region performances:
a) Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar (BJP 19, INC 7)
These two districts form the capital region of Gujarat, have 26 seats between them. Of 26 seats BJP won 19 and INC 7. Of the total votes polled in the sub-region, BJP got 57 percent, while Congress got only 36 percent. Of the 7 seats that Congress won in this region, 4 were decided with narrow margins. The margin in Kalol was only 343 and in Dehgam, 2,297. Sanand and Dariapur of Ahmedabad, won by Congress with low margins of 4,148 and 2,621, respectively.
BJP, on the other hand, won Ghatlodia with a margin of more than a lakh and Maninagar by more than 86 thousand. There were scary results too - Bapunagar of Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar North, by narrow margins of less than 5,000. GPP had put up candidates in many constituencies in this region, but its presence has not been of much significance anywhere, except perhaps in Kalol, where the 543 votes that it has polled are more than the margin of defeat for BJP.
This sub-region, is highly urbanised. The ratio of urbanisation for Gandhinagar-Ahmedabad belt is 77.5 percent.
b) Anand-Kheda (BJP 4, Congress 9, NCP 1)
Congress has deep roots in this sub-region of Central Gujarat. BJP won 4, Congress 9 and NCP 1. Of the total votes polled in the region, BJP got 43.6 percent and Congress 44.3 percent. NCP, which contested 2 seats got 3.2 percent. GPP has got 1.7 percent of the vote.Margins of victory were very narrow for several seats in this sub-region. This region has no ST or SC seat. Urban ratio of the region is 26.4 percent. This makes it among the less urbanised parts of the state.
In all, The BJP won 17 out of 21 seats in Ahmedabad district, 16 out of 18 seats in Surat district and 10 out of 13 seats in Baroda district. In Bharuch district, the BJP had won 4 and the JDU 1. In Bhavnagar district, the BJP won eight seats against the Congress's one. The Congress did well in Sabarkantha district where it bagged six seats against the BJP's one and in Kheda district where it won five seats against the BJP's two. In Banaskantha, the Congress won five seats while the BJP won four. Both the parties fought closely in districts like Rajkot, Junagadh and Valsad. The GPP won a seat each in Junagadh and Amreli districts. The NCP won in Porabandar and Anand. Savli constituency in Anand district went to the Independent.
( End of Part 1)
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