Gujarat Elections – Battle for Gujarat - Part 2 How will t he Patidar agitation impact BJP..

Gujarat Elections – Battle for Gujarat - Part 2

How will the Patidar agitation impact BJP..

In 2012, Keshubhai Patel rebelled against BJP, and contested elections under Gujarat Parivartan Party. Though it bagged only 3.6 percent vote share, it led to the defeat of BJP candidates in 23 seats in Saurashtra and Kutch.
Keshubhai was a Leuva Patel. At that time, the media and opposition were hoping that he would cut into BJP’s votes and help the Congress. It did help to a certain extent, with the BJP losing as many as 25 seats marginally.

This time, instead of Keshubhai, there is Hardik Patel – a Kadva Patel representing the Patidar’s.

Patidar quota demand: The influential Patidar community’s protests to grant them other backward community (OBC) status is probably the biggest challenge the BJP government faces in its two-decade rule. The state government has announced a commission and a corporation for communities outside the purview of reservation. But Patidar leader Hardik Patel says the government’s measures are not new and has vowed to continue the agitation
The Patidars, with 16 percent of the population, hold the keys to government formation in Gujarat. While other caste/community blocks have already made up their minds, the Patels are keenly watching the political development on reservation. They know the caste-population dynamics makes them ‘kingmakers’. . Patidars can affect the result in as many as 60 of the total 182 seats.
The break-up of BJP’s vote share, over the years, shows that approximately one-fourth of it can be attributed to the Patidars. The OBCs, including Kolis, form the largest chunk of voters of BJP, followed by the Patidars and voters from the upper caste. Out of 48 percent vote share BJP received in 2012, 11 percent came from the Patidars.
The BJP’s worry is not just about the community switching over to the Congress – which is unlikely, but even if a section of Patidars (around one-third) don’t vote for the incumbent, it will turn into a tight election.

Congress hopes..

1. Recent alliance of Alpesh Thakor (OSS Ekta Manch - OBC leader) and Jignesh Mevani (Dalit activist leader) – will help swing a lot of votes for the party. However, their power to influence the voters is yet to be tested at ground level.
2. Hardik Patel Impact: In case Hardik Patel supports Congress then the party is likely to get overall 40 per cent vote share. [This will be an increase of 2 per cent vote share and resulting in additional 5-7 seats at the most, for Congress.]
3. Congress has an edge over BJP among 30 per cent of the total voters (Muslim - 10 per cent, Patel - 14 per cent, Dalit - 6 per cent).
4. People are unhappy with BJP due to the implementation of GST. However, it remains to be seen, whether this unhappiness will make them vote for the Congress.

BJP hopes..

1. BJP has an edge among 67 per cent of the total voters (OBC - 37 per cent, ST - 15 per cent and General - 15 per cent)
2. Like Keshubhai was against the BJP last time, this time, Shankersinh Vaghela, a veteran is in the political arena to harm the Congress, after his exit from Congress. He has lot of clout in North Gujarat, where Congress expects to do well.
3. The pride and quotient of having a Gujarati PM supersedes all the other factors.
4. People do not have any issues about basic amenities - road, electricity, drinking water, education and healthcare.
5. The various schemes of the Central Govt. viz., Jan Dhan Yojana, Mission Indradhanush (Immunisation of children) and Ujala Gujarat Yojana for distribution of LED bulbs have benefited people.

As of now, the Congress only enjoys a lead among Dalits and Muslims over the BJP. Even among these two groups, the BJP has made significant inroads. As compared to the 2012 election, the BJP’s vote share among Dalit’s and Muslims has increased by 16 and 7 percentage points, respectively.
Overall, compared to 2012, BJP seems to have widened its gap over the Congress in terms of vote share.

GST: Small and medium-scale businessmen and traders, who form the core of the BJP support base, have been hit by what they call implementation glitches in the roll out of the Goods and Services Tax. The government has moved to address some of their concerns but many say the slowing economy has added to the woes. Textile traders in the state want the government to roll back 5% GST on cloth. In industrial hub Surat, over a lakh traders protested on the streets in July to oppose the 5% GST on textiles.

Unemployment: Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi has tried to raise the issue in his recent rallies, attacking Modi for a lack of jobs. His jobs pitch is aimed at wooing the youth, who otherwise vote for the BJP.

On the whole, it promises to be an election with a lot of fireworks. The Congress is trying to put up a brave face and challenge to stop the BJP juggernaut. On the other hand, for BJP, the issue is different – any seats less than its last time’s number and the opposition will be crying hoarse that it is a reflection of Narendra Modi’s popularity.

What will be the picture on December 18 – read that in our Part 3 of the ‘Battle for Gujarat’ tomorrow.

Dayanand Nene
President, Alert Citizens Forum.