2nd and final survey of Gujarat Elections. ( Part 4) - Maturity of the Indian voter.

2^nd and final survey of Gujarat Elections. ( Part 4)

Maturity of the Indian voter.

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s historic victory in India’s 2014 general election was a watershed in the behavior of the Indian voter. Now after 3 years, the reality is more nuanced.

On some parameters, like voting based on economic and ethnic considerations, there were discernible changes. However, the evidence from earlier election results suggests these shifts were well under way before 2014.

The voter behavior started to change after 2012 – I dare say, after Modi’s 3 consecutive victory in Gujarat. For the first time after losing power in 2004, the BJP discovered a leader whose popularity transcended outside his state and spread Pan India.

For the voter, fed up with 15 years of coalitions in the country and sometimes in states, they found a credible leader whom they could repose their faith into.

Modi was the new hero across the country, who caught the imagination of everyone. The Modi mania also gave rise to a new class – the educated middle class – and created a solid vote bank for the BJP.

Since then, the voters started giving absolute power to the party they thought was the best to govern in their respective areas. Since 2013, they gave BJP a whopping mandate in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh.

Later in the general elctions in 2014, they gave BJP an absolute majority in LokSabha. The voter maturity was underlined by their vote for AAP in Delhi and RJD – JDU in Bihar and last year in Punjab for the Congress - where they decimated the BJP and others.

They opted for BJP in a huge manner in UP.

In other areas—namely, support for regional parties, dynastic politicians, and candidates with criminal activity—the  voters have demonstrated much greater continuity with the past.

Continuity and Change in Voting Behavior

·         Good economics can make for good politics in India. While parochial considerations have been playing a central role in shaping voters’ choices, evidence from state and national elections suggests that macroeconomic realities are becoming increasingly relevant.
 

·         There has been regional parties’ losing their influence in Indian politics and a surprising degree of stability in the balance of power between national and regional parties.
 

·         Dynastic politics may not be popular, but dynastic politicians are. At least one in five members of parliament elected in 2014 came from a political family.
 

·         Indian voters have a long history of electing politicians who are the subject of ongoing criminal cases and the same is continuing.

·         When voters cast their vote, they do not necessarily vote their caste. Social biases remain entrenched in India, but the transmission of those biases into the political domain is imperfect and may be weakening.

·         While the regional-national balance of power is steady, there has been an upheaval among national parties. For now, the BJP has replaced the foundering Congress as the pole around which political competition is organized.

·         Politicians who seek to gain strength using identity-based appeals alone, have generally not fared well. While voters may harbor deep-seated social biases, identity-based concerns and economic evaluations are preferred. The most successful politicians have mastered the art of skillfully combining both types of appeals.

·         The composition of the candidates does not appear to be improving, despite an increase in the absolute number of parties contesting elections. Voters have more choice than ever before, yet there is little qualitative change in the nature of the candidates themselves.

Vis a vis the Gujarat elections, after our 2 surveys, I will analyse what has changed on the ground in the one month gap in the two surveys:

1.       Hardik Patel who was vociferous in supporting Congress and severe on BJP, has taken a different stand now. He is not canvassing along with Rahul and both do not address meetings jointly. It has become clear for him that Rahul is on a losing wicket and may meet the fate of Akhilesh Yadav in UP if he jointly addresses meetings. Hence he is not allowing Rahul to join him in his meetings or does he join him in his meetings. He only gives a vile request to Patidars to vote Congress.

2.      All the bought out media is giving undue importance projecting the crowd as the indicator, not the poll surveys. This clearly shows that they somehow want to show Rahul as leading which is not the case. They are not referring to poll surveys since it will come in the way of their line of thoughts.

3.      The media is not showing Amit Shah’s meetings or that of any BJP leaders meetings, for the fear these crowds are equally big or bigger and active too. Then the cat will be out of the bag.

4.      Rahul’s criticism of demonetization, GST, hug diplomacy , Hafiz Saeed release, etc., have back fired on him. He does not have any issues except probably reservation. He is hanging on to it, though Patidars as a community do not trust him.

5.      Many of the PAAS leaders have joined BJP, making it clear that Hardik is on the wane. The CDs involving Hardik in five star hotel and the sex tapes have distanced many among his community from him. His waning popularity, his support to Congress whom the people hate in Gujarat, are amply making it obvious that Congress is not even close. The massive victory of the scale that is being experienced in UP may be repeated for BJP in Gujarat.

6.     And finally, after conducting a much disciplined campaign for most of the time, Rahul has slipped badly in the last lap. His claims of being a Janeudhari Brahmin and a devout Shiv Bhakt have not only made him a laughing stock, as nobody believes him, but brought the entire campaign back to where the BJP wanted it – the Hindutva agenda.

7.      The media hype of Congress is more a figment of imagination than real. As the election approaches near, Modi’s stock is increasing and Rahul relegating to the background. The picture is getting clear and BJP is expected to win with a huge margin.

8.     Read the actual calculation about the seats in the final Part 5 .

End of Part 4.

@ Dayanand Nene

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