Delhi Chunav (Part 2) Fight of the freebies - AAP eyeing an hat trick.

Delhi Chunav (Part 2)

Fight of the freebies - AAP eyeing an hat trick.

The Delhi assembly elections are just over a fortnight away. And the campaign has reached its full steam. The fight has become a fight of the freebies.

The Aam Aadmi Party, Congress, and Bharatiya Janata Party are all vying to appeal to women voters, a demographic that has gained significant attention from political parties in recent polls.

In the upcoming 2025 race in Delhi, it is evident that all three major parties have identified women voters as a key factor in the election. With women comprising over 46 percent - approximately 71 lakh - of registered voters in Delhi, the parties are actively seeking to secure their support.

Each political party has unveiled various initiatives and incentives aimed specifically at women. The AAP declared that they would provide women with Rs 2,100 monthly, prompting the BJP and Congress to increase the amount to Rs 2,500. Additionally, all three parties have pledged additional benefits, such as monetary aid for pregnant women and complimentary travel for women on state-operated buses.

What are Freebies?

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in a 2022 report, defined freebies as “a public welfare measure that is provided free of cost”. The RBI said that freebies are different from public and merit goods such as health and education, expenditure on which has wider and long-term benefits.

The RBI also noted that freebies are not the road to efficiency or prosperity, “but a quick passport to fiscal disaster.

BJP joins the freebies party 

Despite criticising "freebie politics," the BJP has announced numerous freebies in its Delhi election manifesto, including cash incentives, subsidised meals, and enhanced pensions.

The BJP manifesto highlighted a focus on women and youth, with a commitment to providing Rs 2,500 per month to every woman in Delhi under the Mahila Samridhi Yojana. The BJP's women initiative in Delhi is similar to the successful Ladli Behna Yojana in Madhya Pradesh and Ladki Bahin Yojana in Maharashtra. This initiative is set to be implemented in the first Cabinet meeting. 

The BJP has pledged Rs 21,000 for pregnant women. The party has also promised to offer a pension of Rs 2,500 to individuals aged 60-70, and a higher pension of Rs 3,000 to those over 70 years old.

In addition, families using LPG will receive a Rs 500 subsidy per cylinder, along with one free cylinder each during Holi and Diwali.

The BJP also pledged to provide healthy meals for Rs 5 at Atal canteens located in slum clusters. Nadda has assured voters that if the BJP assumes power, all existing welfare programs, such as complimentary electricity for households consuming up to 200 units and free bus rides for women, will be upheld.

AAP promises

The AAP has introduced the Mahila Samman Yojana to offer an assistance of Rs 1,000 per month to women, with party leader Arvind Kejriwal pledging to raise it to Rs 2,100 per month should his party be re-elected. In addition, the AAP has vowed to provide free healthcare to all senior citizens, a monthly stipend of Rs 18,000 to priests in temples and granthis in gurudwaras, Ambedkar scholarships for students from Dalit communities, and free water.

Arvind Kejriwal, the national convener of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), has also declared that if his party is re-elected, male school and college students will receive free bus rides. Additionally, all students will be granted a 50% discount on Metro fares.

Congress' five guarantees 

The Congress party has introduced a package of five guarantees for the upcoming Delhi election. These include providing 300 free units of power, subsidized LPG cylinders priced at Rs 500 each, free ration kits, a monthly allowance of Rs 2,500 for women through the "Pyari Didi Yojna", health insurance coverage of Rs 25 lakhs for all residents, and a monthly stipend of Rs 8,500 for educated, unemployed youths. 

Additionally, the party promises to offer LPG cylinders at Rs 500, free electricity for up to 300 units, and complimentary ration kits -- with rice, sugar, cooking oil, grains, and tea leaves - to be provided to women in Delhi every month to offset the price rise.

Survey findings 

As the election campaign is reaching its crescendo, we at Righteous reached out to the people of Delhi to find out what is their opinion about the AAP Govt and whom do they prefer to form the govt.

1) Almost 51% of the people surveyed stated that they are satisfied with the performance of the AAP govt. 40% people said they were not satisfied.

2) 47% people felt that the BJP is unleashing a political vendetta against AAP and Kejriwal. 40% felt that AAP deserved to be investigated for their misdeeds and there was no vendetta.

3) 50% people felt that the Delhi liquor case will not influence the people while voting. 42% felt that it would influence.

4) 56% people felt that Arvind Kejriwal is best suited to become Chief Minister. 14% felt Manish Sisodia and 11% backed Atishi for the CMs post. 8% preferred Manoj Tiwari of BJP.

5) 44% people said that they vote differently for Loksabha and Assembly election. 31% stated that they vote for the same party. A whopping 25% refused to give their opinion on the question.

What’s at stake for BJP, Congress?

The BJP is the AAP’s main opponent in the Delhi Assembly polls. It has not declared a CM face yet and is fighting the elections on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s face.

BJP has remained out of power in Delhi for more than two decades. While the BJP has won all seven seats in Delhi in the last three Lok Sabha elections, it has failed to win the Assembly elections in the UT since 1998.

PM Modi has set the campaign tone for the BJP in his speeches while inaugurating major infrastructure projects for Delhi.

Hitting out at AAP, he raised the party’s poll slogan: “AAP-da nahi sahenge, badal ke rahenge (We will not tolerate this disaster, we will bring a change).”

For the BJP, Delhi elections are a battle of prestige. After a reduced mandate in last year’s Lok Sabha elections, the party bounced back in the Haryana and Maharashtra Assembly elections, winning both.

However, Delhi has remained elusive for the BJP. The AAP is trying to corner the BJP over the lack of a CM face in the city. BJP is relying on its voter base – upper middle class, the trading and Punjabi communities — and support from a section of Purvanchali voters to defeat the AAP in Delhi. It is now making efforts to also lure the lower middle class, Dalits and the poor to deliver the final blow.

Sisodia speak 

When we spoke to AAP leader Manish Sisodia, he said that AAP Govt is giving back the money people pay as 

taxes back to them vide these various welfare schemes. He explained that earlier a lot of money was being pilfered due to corruption. The AAP govt plugged corruption pilferage and is redistributing the same money to people. He added that starting from the Prime Minister, all those who were ridiculing AAP and its "revdies ", are now following Kejriwal's policies of giving benefits to people.

Prospective Result 

Our findings show that inspite of BJPs no hold barred hyper campaign and Congress efforts to reinstate itself, as of today, i. e. January 15th, AAP is still the front runner in this election.

Adding another layer of complexity to the contest, fringe players like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) are eyeing vote shares that could disrupt the plans of the main contenders. 

The BSP is contesting all 70 seats, while AIMIM is focusing on about a dozen Muslim-majority constituencies.

AAP is expected to get a 45%+ voteshare in this election. Though down from the 53.5% it won in 2020, it will be enough for them to win a simple majority.

BJP is expected to get around 40% voteshare. Congress around 5%. Others together adding upto another 6%.

So there is a floating undecided voter of around 4%. This voter will be crucial in deciding the fate of BJP's bid to return to power.

If the "Others" cut into AAP's votes in about 16 Muslim dominated seats and the entire 4% undecided voters swing to BJPs side - then AAP will have a fight on hand.

However as things stand today, AAP will win about 40+ seats and form a govt. BJP can expect around 25-30 seats. For the Congress, they should be happy if they open their account.

(End of our survey findings )

Dayanand Nene