Midterm survey of Thane and Palghar District.

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ALERT CITIZENS FORUM OF INDIA 

Midterm survey of Thane and Palghar District.

Alert Citizens Forum of India conducted a midterm poll of Thane and Palghar Districts  to gauge the mind of the voter.

1) Survey done for 24 constituencies in Thane and Palghar Districts.
2) Sample size : 3845 respondents.
3) Dates on which the survey was done: May 28 to June 7, 2017.

If a midterm poll is conducted now then :
BJP can win 10 o/o 24 seats - a gain of 1 seat.
SS can win 4 o/o 24 seats - a loss of 3 seats.
NCP can win 5 o/o 24 seats. - gain of 1 seat.
Congress can win 2 seats a gain of 2 seats.
BVA will retain its 3 seats.

Analysis: 
BJP can snatch Ovala Majiwade from Sena and Ulhasnagar from NCP but lose Belapur.
SS is expected to lose both seats from Bhiwandi - East and Rural to Congress, Kalyan R to NCP and Ovala Majiwade to BJP.


Questionnaire:
1) Are you happy with the performance of the State Govt.?
# Of the 3845 respondents 2677 said that they were happy with the performance of the State Govt.
2) Are you happy with the performance of your local MLA ?
# From all constituencies 1865 people were satisfied with the performance of the local MLAs.
3) Whom did you vote for in the last assembly election?
The answer differed from Constituency to constituency but by and large @ 48% people were happy with the party they voted last time.
4) How will you rate the handling of the following by the State Govt?
a) Law and Order
> 2077, i.e. 54% said they were satisfied with the law and order in the state.
b) Social agitations ( Maratha)
> 2269, i.e. 59% were satisfied the way the Govt dealt with the Maratha agitation.
c) Drought situation
> 2576, i.e. 67% were satisfied with the way Fadnavis tackled the drought situation last year.
d) Farmers suicides
> 1846, i.e. 48% people felt that the CM is handling the Farmers suicides issue maturedly while 1884 - 49% were dissatisfied with his handling. 114 were non committal.
e) Eliminating Political Corruption
> a whopping 2730 - 71% people are satisfied with the government's intent to stamp out Political Corruption.
5) If a midterm poll is held, whom will you vote for?
• BJP
• Shivsena
• Congress
• NCP
• Others

> The overall response to this question gave BJP 10/24 seats, NCP  5/24 seats, Shivsena 4/24 seats, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi 3/24 seats and Congress 2/24 seats.
> BJP support base has consolidated in this predominantly urban belt.
> Muslims look up to NCP and where it is weak they are going back to Congress.
> Shivsena clearly on the back foot.

Results:
Constituency        2014         Now
1) Airoli.                 NCP.         NCP
2) Ambernath.        SS.           SS
3) Belapur.              BJP          NCP
4) Bhiwandi W.       BJP.          BJP
5) Bhiwandi  E.        SS.          INC
6) Bhiwandi  R.        SS.          INC
7) Dombivli             BJP.         BJP
8) Kalyan W             BJP         BJP 
9) Kalyan E.              Ind.         SS
10) Kalyan R.             SS.         NCP
11) K PP.                     SS.         SS
12) M B.                     BJP        BJP
13) K Mum               NCP       NCP
14) Murbad.              BJP.        BJP
15) Ov. Maj.                SS.        BJP 
16) Shahpur.              NCP      NCP
17) Thane                  BJP        BJP
18) U'nagar.               NCP      BJP
19) Boisar ST.             BVA.      BVA
20) Dahanu.               BJP       BJP
21) Nalasopara.          BVA.     BVA
22) Palghar.                SS.        SS
23) Vasai.                    BVA.     BVA
24) Vikramgad.           BJP       BJP

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