The India - China Galwan Face-off on June 15, 2020

SHEDDING LIGHT ON GALWAN INCIDENT - 15th JUNE

I have tried to string together the various accounts to try and deduce a picture of what transpired on Monday, 15th June. The sources of these accounts are both public ones, like Shiv Aroor, Abhijit Iyer Mitra's and other's accounts; as also some 4-5 reports which have come in via friends with close area contacts. 

Read this with the rider that the areas depicted on the map are my best guesstimates. In the absence of there being a coherent account/timeline of events, this is what I have been able to distil as the most probable scenario. If you have better information, please feel free to correct or add. I will make changes in the body text accordingly after separately ascertaining.

THE BACK STORY

The Galwan river is a tributary to the Shyok river. It flows in from East and then takes a sharp left turn (aligned with the flow of the river) on account of geological features, to go ahead and meet with the Shyok river. From the point where it turns left is considered to be Indian territory. The LAC passes along the ridgeline of the bank of the river, which dips into the bend and moves approximately along the ridgeline of the opposite bank. The corner of the bend of the river, known as point 14. This is the point to which Indian patrols go and return.

Early May, a Chinese tent was spotted on a triangular bank, at point 14. This is deemed to be in Indian territory. Not just that Chinese troops patrolled down along the bank towards Shyok. Indian patrol went up from Shyok and confronted them. The Chinese claim now was ALL of the Galwan valley was theirs. 

Subsequently, the Chinese dismantled the tent and the camp and fell back. However, they'd keep up intrusions into the Indian part of Galwan, and also pitched tents higher up on the bank. This was right at the corner of the bend. India protested this cos it was on our slope. 

THE TRIGGERING EVENT

Post the Lt Gen level meeting on the 6th of June, it was agreed that the two armies would disengage and move back. Indians to Shyok river and the Chinese to point 1, which is further upstream Galwan river. 

The Chinese had put up tent/s on a ledge on the ridge above the point. The reason they might have moved the tent/s from the river bed to above was, not only did it give a better vantage point, with the glacial melt the rivers tend to be in spate around now (and this continues till August). 

So as to ensure that the Chinese had complied, a patrol was sent to inspect. This patrol essentially consisted of about 12 members. Some accounts suggest that the patrol was being led by Major and the rest soldiers and NCOs. There's one report which says that the Chinese had brought up an earthmover along Galwan river towards construction, upto the point. The tents hadn't been dismantled.

THE FACE-OFF

As per protocols, the patrol had gone in unarmed, possibly carrying only sticks. Once they reached the spot, and on finding the tents still there, they asked the Chinese to comply with the disengagement plan. From most reports, they were waylaid up and held hostage by the Chinese. It can be safe to assume that the Chinese were armed with guns, else it wouldn't be possible to 'detain' the Indian patrol. 

The report of this hostage situation reached the base and, as per reports, the CO rushed with another platoon, with back up forces following up. The ledge on which the Chinese were situated is a tough and treacherous trek from the Indian side. Here, it seems, they insisted that the CO come with only a small team and negotiate. There were alleged threats to throw the captive Indian soldiers over the ledge. 

THE ATTACK

Col Babu went up the ledge to negotiate. After the negotiation, they seemed to agree to the withdrawal, when they suddenly leapt at Col Babu and the two soldiers who were with him. They had spiked mallets and heavy handheld weapons. They hit and bludgeoned them to death on the spot. Not just that they chase at the rest of the second party who had gone up with the intent to kill. As they were only armed with a staff they tried to retreat and escape, but were chased and either slipped and fell down the ledge, or were thrown or were chased and beaten to death. Remember, the Chinese were at least 3:1 against the Indians and were armed with killer weapons.

THE REINFORCEMENTS & THE MELEE

On seeing this unfold, the main body of Indian troops now rushed to support their comrades. But they could, at best move up in a single file. They resorted to stone-pelting and this happened both ways. There were about 200 odd Indian soldiers. 

There was a larger Chinese force which was waiting at the base of the slope, on the Chinese side. They rushed up. Now there were nearly 3-400 odd Chinese to take on the Indians who were scampering up to confront. 

Essentially a pell-mell resulted. It's tough to say, being so removed, what exactly transpired or who did what in this situation. There have been some reports of shots being fired (as also bullet wounds), but that hasn't been substantiated. 

Remember all this was happening in diminishing light, with the night gaining rapidly. Given the terrain, as the Sun gets hidden by the jagged peaks, darkness falls fast and suddenly. This contributes to more deaths and accidents.

THE LANDSLIDE

The greatest revenge, it seems, was taken by Karma. While accounts differ (Vineet says that it was a Chinese JCB which was ill operated which caused it) the fact of the matter was, there were too many Chinese troops (some say upwards of 300) up on the ledge. They preferred being on the ledge instead of storming on the river bed cos, being on the ledge would give them an unfair advantage over Indian troops who were coming in single file. However, this turned out to be their doom (goes to prove how unfamiliar they are with the terrain). A portion of the ledge gave way under the weight and resulted in a landslide. If you inspect the pictures, you will find that there are a number of landslides along the slopes. This landslide resulted in the maximum number of casualties for the Chinese. 

The soldiers who were being kept hostage and their exact fate haven't been outed, yet. There were some reports that at least some of the hostages were freed. Some possibly also were victims of the landslide. 

Given the fact that it was night, a rescue was difficult. Most fell into the river below. This resulted in hypothermia as also a lot of injuries. 

WAS IT PRE-MEDITATED?

There's no doubt about the fact that this was premeditated. The place of the ambush was carefully chosen. The troops were prepared and in all probability weren't regular Border troops but more hardened troops. They initiated the violence with a clear intent to kill. The weapons they had on were designed for fatal damage. They laid and initiated the ambush. It was their own overzealousness which resulted in a much higher casualty rate for them.

THE GREY AREA CHINA WILL CLAIM

China will claim that it was in its own land cos it was on the ledge at the very edge of the LAC. But the ledge is clearly on the Indian side. The facts of the matter can only be ascertained by fresh satellite images and they must have. Irrespective of whatever China claims, India should mount a diplomatic offensive against China. India will not get a better chance to do so.

CAN ONE DECLARE WAR ON THE BASIS OF THIS?

Highly unlikely. Why? Cos it has transpired in a very grey area. However, one can start exploiting grey areas to India's advantage and go and park parallel to the Chinese camps at Finger 7. Essentially build-up counter negotiation chips. India's been acting very meek until now. 

In this, both China and India will want the other side to fire the first salvo so that they can retaliate big and then have the international players to intervene. 

There's a number of things which can be initiated and achieved tactically without going in for an all-out escalation. China has to be made to hurt and there must be a number of ways to do it? Iran DID hit out at KSA by striking their oilfield. That didn't escalate to war. Each action will have an opposing reaction. Be prepared for it. But to back down tamely now, and pay an even greater cost down the line. The reasons for inaction will be as pertinent then as it is now, if one doesn't find the guts to stand up for itself.

In the off chance that India can catch China with its foot in any wrong place, India should draw blood. India needn't import Melee items. It can well churn them out. Some happy 'clubbing' anywhere along the LAC won't be a bad idea. 

However, without having a gameplan and clear objective, just maintaining a build-up is a drain of resource, morale and a waste. It will not suffice to just give freedom to the local commanders. There's also need for a gameplan. I hope the Govt has thought it through towards an endgame as also, how to extract cost. But extract cost, it must.