NDA GOVT IT WILL BE IN 2019.

NDA GOVT IT WILL BE IN 2019.

FINDINGS OF THE SURVEY DONE BY ALERT CITIZENS FORUM

Published on April 8th, 2019.

2019 elections are going to be very hard fought elections, compared to 2014. The opposition, though in a disarray generally, have so far put up a spirited fight across the length and breadth of the country. Their misinformation campaign seems to be appealing to a section of people. In the Hindi heartland, slogans like ‘Chowkidar Chor Hain’ have caught up people’s imagination – especially amongst the illiterate class. BJP and Modi have a fight on their hands.

These are the crucial findings of the nation wide survey undertaken by Alert Citizens Forum of India through its 20 representatives, in the month of March 2019.

Let us see how politics is brewing in the country.

1.     Many surveys have predicted NDA will just fall short of majority and all have predicted BJP alone will not get a majority. But very few have opined in favour of the opposition or for hung verdict. As the Mahagathbandhan has not emerged as expected, these surveys could not gauge the mood of the people regarding Mahagathbandhan conclusively.

2.     The BJP led NDA has firmed up its seat sharing with its partners, but, on the other hand, the Congress is still floundering – as late as first week of April.

3.     The discussion in most urban centres of the country or among friends and family members are only about Modi and whether he is going to be re-elected. This proves that there is a strong undercurrent in favour of relecting Modi in most urban centres of the country.

4.     Majority of the people in the country have opined that Modi Sarkar has kept high degree of honesty and transparency that was lacking in the Congress led UPA regime.

Uttar Pradesh.

1.     UP is the deciding factor for BJP to get majority. In 2014, the party had secured a unbelievable 73/80 seats from here. It is a performance, which is hard to emulate. Especially in view of the fact that the SP and BSP – once bitter rivals – have joined hands this time against the BJP. Both of them have 49 % plus votes in the region and the BJP has 32%.

2.     However, the SP vote can be divided by Shivpal Yadav – uncle of Akhilesh Yadav, who is contesting these elections separately.

3.     Another leader Chandrashekhar Azad started a Bhim Army. He is also contesting elections and can dent into BSP votes.

4.     These two are sure to divide the opposition. Even if they manage 5 to 8% together, the dreams of the opposition to win majority of seats in the state will not happen.

5.     The Congress has introduced Priyanka Gandhi – Vadra in the campaign.

6.     Post the Balakot strikes, the opinion amongst people has had a swing in favour of Modi Sarkar.

7.     All these factors, make the UP scenario interesting but murkier to predict.

8.     UP - which has 80 seats will see acute power struggle. BJP had secured 25 seats with more than 50% votes and above 45 % in another 20 seats in 2014. BJP is  expected to retain all these seats. Hence BJP may get anywhere between 50 to 55 seats.

Rest of India.

1.     This election has diverse patterns – different situations. In some states, you have a direct fight between the BJP and Congress while in some states, the Congress in not a factor but regional parties are dominant. There is a third scenario, ststes where the BJP is not present at all.

2.     So, ACF decided to bunch together where the election is between BJP and Congress only. Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, HP, Uttarakhand will have direct fight between BJP and Congress. Other parties do not matter here. All these states together have 100 seats. In 2014 BJP secured 97 seats. In 2019 BJP will retain its strength in Gujarat, HP, and Uttarakhand. In Rajasthan and MP the party may lose marginally. But it will be adversely affected in Chattisgarh. BJP or NDA will score 80 seats.

3.     Now let us look at Maharashtra and Bihar. In both these ststes, the BJP and its allies – Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and JDU and LJP in Bihar have solid alliance and backing of the people. Of the 88 seats in these 2 states, the BJP-NDA can win 70.

4.     In Jharkhand and Haryana, the Congress may pose some opposition. Out of the 24 seats in these 2 states, the BJP-NDA can win 13.

5.     In Northeast BJP - NDA is expected to win 17 out of the 24 seats in the region.

6.     Delhi will see aq straight fight between the BJP and AAP-Congress alliance. BJP is expected to win 5 of the 7 seats in Delhi.

7.     In Punjab NDA faces a stiff battle against the Congress – AAP alliance and may win 2 seats.

8.     J & K will repeat 2014 results. BJP will get 3 seats.

9.     In West Bengal and Odisha BJP has improved tremendously. It is expected to win 25 out of the 63 seats,

10.  In the South BJP is present only in Karnataka. In other states, with alliances with local regional players there is a possibility of gaining few seats. In Karnataka it may win 18 seats. In all other states in the South the party may get 0 to 3 seats.

11.   In all, NDA will get 288 – 290 seats.

12.  BJP will get around 250 - 260 seats.

  

 

Dayanand J. Nene