2ND AND FINAL PRE POLL SURVEY OF GUJARAT ELECTIONS.( Part 1)

ALERT CITIZENS FORUM OF INDIA

2^ND AND FINAL PRE POLL SURVEY OF GUJARAT ELECTIONS.

( Conducted across the State between November 25 and 30):

PART 1.

The first pre-poll survey conducted by Alert Citizens Forum one month ago had thrown up the following picture:

Vote share:

1) BJP vote share expected to be around 48-49 %.

2) Congress vote share expected to be around 37-39 %.

Seats:

1) BJP likely to win between 112 to 124 seats.

2) Congress likely to win between 49 to 58 seats.

As the election campaign in Gujarat enters its final phase, the two chief contenders for power, BJP and Congress have upped the ante. Allegations and counter repartees have become the order of the day.

The Congress, led by its Vice President Rahul Gandhi has tried its best to turn this election into a battle of castes.

The BJP has tried to counter it by appealing to Gujarati pride – Gujarat ni Asmita – thru its slogan "Darek Gujarati Ni Ek Hi Awaaz: Hu Chu Vikas, Hu Chu Gujarat (One voice of all Gujaratis: I am Vikas, I am Gujarat)".

In the last lap, the BJP has entered its trump card, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a final assault on the campaign. The party is taking no chances and has adopted a two pronged strategy : hit hard at the Congress but also woo the voters by issuing sublte but sensible appeals of  Gujarati pride and keeping their faith in ‘ aapdo manas’- Narendra Modi.

On the BJP posters in Gujarat, it is Narendra Modi all over.

Result of Gujarat assembly elections from 2007 to 2012.

Gujarat is a traditional fort of BJP since 1995. The election statistics from 1995 to 2012 assembly elections shows that voteshare has been BJP-48 % and Congress party 38%, all throughout ( + - 2%).

So far elections all over India including Gujarat was fought over the development issue, but this time Congress has successfully kept it away from development and is playing caste card.

The Congress is relying mainly on its 3 new found friends – Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mewani ( who are now being termed as the HAJ trio – a perfect footnote for the colloquial name the Congress is addressed as: Mussalmano ki party).

Let us look at their strength and weaknesses.

All these sadak- chhap leaders are instigating casteism in Gujarat voters. Their mathematics is simple. If you can’t increase your vote share it does not matter,  bring down the voteshare of BJP to grab power.

HARDIK PATEL: He formed Paatidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) and instigated Patidar Patel community to fight for reservation. As  the uneducated and lowly educated Patel youth were effected by sluggishness in diamond industry, agriculture and economy, paucity of government jobs, the instigation by Hardik seemed attractive for them.  

Patels constitute 15 % ( 8% Leuva and 6% Kadva Patidars) of voters in Gujarat. This is one of the votebanks of BJP in Gujarat.  Hardik Patel’s supporters are the Leuva Patels who were the staunch supporters of the erstwhile Gujarat Parivartan Party of ex-cm Keshubhai Patel. The GPP had mustered only 3.6 % of votes and 2 seats in 2012 elections. Supposing that the same percentage of Patidars  vote against BJP, it will not have a deciding effect on the results.

ALPESH THAKOR: He is the leader from the Thakor community – an OBC (Other backward class.) OBCs form 40% of the voters in Gujarat and are staunch supporters of Modi. However Thakor community is a staunch supporter of Congress party and Shankersinh Vaghela has a tremendous influence over them. They form 22% of OBC voters.

Shankersinh Vaghela is fighting elections on his own after quitting the Congress. Congress party has fortified itself against this factor by propping Alpesh Thakor as a new OBC leader.

JIGNESH MEVANI:- Young dalit leader supported by Congress. This will make no difference for Congress and BJP as all the Dalits who form 7 or 8 % of voters always vote for Congress and they are votebank of Congress. They never vote for BJP or a very small percentage of educated dalit vote for BJP.

In the past, BJP has always beaten Congress by 10% margin which is quite comfortable to come in power again in 2017. BJPs  traditional votebank forms the so called Upper castes,  OBCs Koli Patels, Choudhary Patels, Shia Muslims alongwith the  Brahmins, Patels, Baniyas, Rajputs and Kshatriyas.

So far voters of Gujarat have voted for the cause of development and are supporting BJP because they have tasted the fruits of development. Caste factor is redundant in Gujarat. But the Congress is desperate and restless to gain power in Gujarat. Congress this time is not focussing on communal feelings because there is nothing to show at all as the law and order situation is excellent in Gujarat.

It looks that Muslims would support the Congress (although Shia Muslims are staunch supporters of BJP.  Some other educated Muslims may also favour BJP due to peaceful commercial environment and development factor.)

End of Part 1.

@ Dayanand Nene

President, Alert Citizens Forum