Modi set to return with Hat-trick - our opinion poll
MODI SET TO RETURN TO POWER WITH A HAT-TRICK..
Predicting electoral outcomes in India is almost an impossible science that involves a lot of occult mysteries like imagined caste-vote tilts and representative sample sizes that try to judge voter perceptions regarding government’s performance etc etc.
For a nation of 1.2 billion people with a million castes/religions/languages/ethnic groups, even after 65 years of independence, we are totally clueless about the percentage of population of different subgroups.
To add to this huge gap in our databases is the total opaqueness of the Election Commission of India which has never released polling booth level voting numbers for wider public scrutiny. Polling booth level voting data is released to the political parties and contesting candidates by the election commission and it is a herculean task to get access to that data.
It was on this back drop that we conducted a survey of the voter perception of Gujarat and assessed the performance of the Modi Govt and then translated the data gathered in to the number of seats which each of the 3 major players: BJP, Congress and Gujarat Parivartan Party will get in this Mahasangram of 2012.
The survey, which was conducted in last week of October, pointed out that indeed this is a fight between Narendra Modi and the Congress.
With more than two-thirds of voters responding that they are satisfied with the BJP government in Gujarat and almost three-fourths saying they are satisfied with Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s performance, the pressure shall be on Modi and the BJP to register a big victory.
The BJP had won 117 seats with 48% vote in the assembly in 2007. So, with all the hype created about the ‘Developmental work’ of the Modi Govt., and more than 50% voters responding that they will vote for the BJP, the party will be expected to cross 120 seats.
In 2007, the Congress had won 59 seats with 38 per cent votes. There was an improvement in 2009, when the party polled over 43 per cent votes and led in 76 assembly segments. But since then, the party has not done anything to build upon that improved performance.
However, the Congress presently has 11 MPs in the Lok Sabha from Gujarat, which seems a large number and this is a ray of hope for the Congress.
With Keshubhai Patel’s GPP also jumping into the fray and assuring the Congress of eating into the BJP’s voteshare, the grand old party will be hoping for an election in which it will remain a firm second best. However, the worst case scenario for the party will be if Keshubhai manages to eat into the Congress’ tally in the state, possibly killing it off for the next elections.
For the Congress, therefore, the crucial question is: will it retain the ground it recovered in 2009 or will it go back to its 2007 performance? Apart from its psychological impact, given the proximity to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, this is life-and-death for the Gujarat Congress.
In other words, for the Congress, the issue is whether it will go the Uttar Pradesh-Bihar way in Gujarat, or whether it will have something to console itself with and retain its workers in the hope that they will come to power next time.
Our research and analysis revealed that:
• In each assembly election from 1995 onwards, BJP has maintained a 10% gap over the Congress.
• A 10% gap over a 4 election-cycle is almost impossible to breach under normal electoral conditions in India
• Over the years as “others” and smaller parties started becoming irrelevant in the Gujarat electoral scene, the “others” vote have shifted to the two main players.
• In the Indian first-past-the-post electoral system having a 50% vote-share has a huge advantage in the electoral- arithmetic.
• Any increase of even 1% from the present base of close to 50% vote-share will give an exponential number of seats for the BJP, but a drop of even 2-3% of vote-share will only mean a marginal drop in the corresponding number of seats in the assembly
• This time, after a gap of almost 2 decades, there are a lot of “others” in the fray and that will have a huge bearing on the vote-share percentages of both the principal players.
Lets us now look at the strengths and weakneses of the two main players:
• BJP’s mainstay comes from Upper castes, Patels & OBCs, whereas Congress’ mainstay comes from SC, ST and Muslim votes.
• BJP has a larger pool of core vote base – 65%, so it can afford to lose some of the vote-share and still manage to emerge victorious.
• Congress has a smaller pool of core vote base – 35%, so it cannot afford to lose any vote-share if it wants to remain in contention
• Compared to LS polls in 2009 with assembly polls of 2007, BJP’s biggest drop in vote-share has come from two communities – Patels & Kolis
• Compared to LS polls in 2009 with assembly polls of 2007, Congress’ biggest gain in vote-share has been from three communities – Patels, Thakors & other upper castes.
• Almost double the number of Muslims tend to vote for the BJP in assembly polls vis-à-vis LS polls, but that hasn’t impacted the Congress’ Muslim vote-share much till now (it is the non-Congress Muslim vote that has been accruing to the BJP in assembly polls).
• Unlike other states, in Gujarat, voters tend to vote for “others” more in the LS polls than in assembly polls – suggesting a deeper sense of satisfaction with the state politics than the central politics.
• In the LS polls, the highest percentage of “others” vote-share is in the SC community – 19% (the BSP factor?), whereas in assembly polls, the highest percentage of “others” vote-share is in the Patel community – 15%
• In the LS polls, the lowest percentage of “others” vote-share is among the other upper castes, Thakors & STs – 5% each, whereas in assembly polls, the lowest vote-share percentage for “others” is among the Kolis & other OBCs.
• This time the presence of stronger “others” in the electoral arena can potentially take a bigger chunk of the vote-share; the communities to be watched are – Patels, Kolis & Muslim – for their susceptibility to flux-voting.
Summary
• The Electoral map in Gujarat suggests that the BJP’s spread in Gujarat is similar across all regions, whereas Congress has pockets of influence here and there
• Higher voter turnouts in assembly polls compared to LS polls seem to be favouring the BJP more than the Congress – this plus vote goes to BJP
• In 20 years and 8 election cycles, only once has the BJP tally of assembly segment lead positions been less than 100 – in the 2004 LS polls
• BJP has consistently maintained a whopping 10% gap in the assembly elections since 1995
• BJP’s vote-share this time is expected to touch the 50% mark, which is a significant achievement in terms of Indian electoral arithmetic
• BJP has a larger pool of (caste-community based) core-voters – 65%, while Congress has a smaller pool of core-voters – 35%
• Surprisingly, BJP’s rural vote remains intact and more loyal to the party in both LS as well as assembly polls, whereas the urban vote-base of the BJP is more susceptible to swings.
• In the 2012 elections, the “others” vote percentage might play a crucial role in the electoral arena
• BJP has some 56 assembly segments where it has never lost an election since 1995, while Congress only has 6 such seats.
• ZONE WISE FORECAST
Saurashtra-Kutch: Of the 54 in this region the BJP is likely to win 38 seats -almost the same it had won in 2002. The Congress is expected to bag only 11. Others are projected to get five. It means BJP will lose 5 seats in Saurashtra as compared to the last election. Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat Parivartan Party can win 3/4 seats here.
North Gujarat: Of the 53 seats in this region, BJP is likely to win 39 seats while the Congress is likely to get only 14. BJP is expected to lose one and the Congress might gain one here.
Central Gujarat: Of the 40 seats in the region, BJP is projected to win 20 to 22 seats while the Congress is running close with 18. This indicates that BJP will gain 4 seats this time while the Congress will lose 4.
South Gujarat: The BJP once again will prove its strength here by bagging 24 to 26 out of the 35 seats, while the Congress will end with 7 to 9 seats. This will mean a gain for BJP as it is seen to capture 8 more seats compared to 2007.
Final seats tally predicted:
BJP 120 to 131 seats
Congress 40 to 52 seats
Others 7 to 10 seats
So, Gujarat is almost likely to see Narendra Modi return to power with maybe, his biggest win.
- Dayanand Nene
Predicting electoral outcomes in India is almost an impossible science that involves a lot of occult mysteries like imagined caste-vote tilts and representative sample sizes that try to judge voter perceptions regarding government’s performance etc etc.
For a nation of 1.2 billion people with a million castes/religions/languages/ethnic groups, even after 65 years of independence, we are totally clueless about the percentage of population of different subgroups.
To add to this huge gap in our databases is the total opaqueness of the Election Commission of India which has never released polling booth level voting numbers for wider public scrutiny. Polling booth level voting data is released to the political parties and contesting candidates by the election commission and it is a herculean task to get access to that data.
It was on this back drop that we conducted a survey of the voter perception of Gujarat and assessed the performance of the Modi Govt and then translated the data gathered in to the number of seats which each of the 3 major players: BJP, Congress and Gujarat Parivartan Party will get in this Mahasangram of 2012.
The survey, which was conducted in last week of October, pointed out that indeed this is a fight between Narendra Modi and the Congress.
With more than two-thirds of voters responding that they are satisfied with the BJP government in Gujarat and almost three-fourths saying they are satisfied with Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s performance, the pressure shall be on Modi and the BJP to register a big victory.
The BJP had won 117 seats with 48% vote in the assembly in 2007. So, with all the hype created about the ‘Developmental work’ of the Modi Govt., and more than 50% voters responding that they will vote for the BJP, the party will be expected to cross 120 seats.
In 2007, the Congress had won 59 seats with 38 per cent votes. There was an improvement in 2009, when the party polled over 43 per cent votes and led in 76 assembly segments. But since then, the party has not done anything to build upon that improved performance.
However, the Congress presently has 11 MPs in the Lok Sabha from Gujarat, which seems a large number and this is a ray of hope for the Congress.
With Keshubhai Patel’s GPP also jumping into the fray and assuring the Congress of eating into the BJP’s voteshare, the grand old party will be hoping for an election in which it will remain a firm second best. However, the worst case scenario for the party will be if Keshubhai manages to eat into the Congress’ tally in the state, possibly killing it off for the next elections.
For the Congress, therefore, the crucial question is: will it retain the ground it recovered in 2009 or will it go back to its 2007 performance? Apart from its psychological impact, given the proximity to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, this is life-and-death for the Gujarat Congress.
In other words, for the Congress, the issue is whether it will go the Uttar Pradesh-Bihar way in Gujarat, or whether it will have something to console itself with and retain its workers in the hope that they will come to power next time.
Our research and analysis revealed that:
• In each assembly election from 1995 onwards, BJP has maintained a 10% gap over the Congress.
• A 10% gap over a 4 election-cycle is almost impossible to breach under normal electoral conditions in India
• Over the years as “others” and smaller parties started becoming irrelevant in the Gujarat electoral scene, the “others” vote have shifted to the two main players.
• In the Indian first-past-the-post electoral system having a 50% vote-share has a huge advantage in the electoral- arithmetic.
• Any increase of even 1% from the present base of close to 50% vote-share will give an exponential number of seats for the BJP, but a drop of even 2-3% of vote-share will only mean a marginal drop in the corresponding number of seats in the assembly
• This time, after a gap of almost 2 decades, there are a lot of “others” in the fray and that will have a huge bearing on the vote-share percentages of both the principal players.
Lets us now look at the strengths and weakneses of the two main players:
• BJP’s mainstay comes from Upper castes, Patels & OBCs, whereas Congress’ mainstay comes from SC, ST and Muslim votes.
• BJP has a larger pool of core vote base – 65%, so it can afford to lose some of the vote-share and still manage to emerge victorious.
• Congress has a smaller pool of core vote base – 35%, so it cannot afford to lose any vote-share if it wants to remain in contention
• Compared to LS polls in 2009 with assembly polls of 2007, BJP’s biggest drop in vote-share has come from two communities – Patels & Kolis
• Compared to LS polls in 2009 with assembly polls of 2007, Congress’ biggest gain in vote-share has been from three communities – Patels, Thakors & other upper castes.
• Almost double the number of Muslims tend to vote for the BJP in assembly polls vis-à-vis LS polls, but that hasn’t impacted the Congress’ Muslim vote-share much till now (it is the non-Congress Muslim vote that has been accruing to the BJP in assembly polls).
• Unlike other states, in Gujarat, voters tend to vote for “others” more in the LS polls than in assembly polls – suggesting a deeper sense of satisfaction with the state politics than the central politics.
• In the LS polls, the highest percentage of “others” vote-share is in the SC community – 19% (the BSP factor?), whereas in assembly polls, the highest percentage of “others” vote-share is in the Patel community – 15%
• In the LS polls, the lowest percentage of “others” vote-share is among the other upper castes, Thakors & STs – 5% each, whereas in assembly polls, the lowest vote-share percentage for “others” is among the Kolis & other OBCs.
• This time the presence of stronger “others” in the electoral arena can potentially take a bigger chunk of the vote-share; the communities to be watched are – Patels, Kolis & Muslim – for their susceptibility to flux-voting.
Summary
• The Electoral map in Gujarat suggests that the BJP’s spread in Gujarat is similar across all regions, whereas Congress has pockets of influence here and there
• Higher voter turnouts in assembly polls compared to LS polls seem to be favouring the BJP more than the Congress – this plus vote goes to BJP
• In 20 years and 8 election cycles, only once has the BJP tally of assembly segment lead positions been less than 100 – in the 2004 LS polls
• BJP has consistently maintained a whopping 10% gap in the assembly elections since 1995
• BJP’s vote-share this time is expected to touch the 50% mark, which is a significant achievement in terms of Indian electoral arithmetic
• BJP has a larger pool of (caste-community based) core-voters – 65%, while Congress has a smaller pool of core-voters – 35%
• Surprisingly, BJP’s rural vote remains intact and more loyal to the party in both LS as well as assembly polls, whereas the urban vote-base of the BJP is more susceptible to swings.
• In the 2012 elections, the “others” vote percentage might play a crucial role in the electoral arena
• BJP has some 56 assembly segments where it has never lost an election since 1995, while Congress only has 6 such seats.
• ZONE WISE FORECAST
Saurashtra-Kutch: Of the 54 in this region the BJP is likely to win 38 seats -almost the same it had won in 2002. The Congress is expected to bag only 11. Others are projected to get five. It means BJP will lose 5 seats in Saurashtra as compared to the last election. Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat Parivartan Party can win 3/4 seats here.
North Gujarat: Of the 53 seats in this region, BJP is likely to win 39 seats while the Congress is likely to get only 14. BJP is expected to lose one and the Congress might gain one here.
Central Gujarat: Of the 40 seats in the region, BJP is projected to win 20 to 22 seats while the Congress is running close with 18. This indicates that BJP will gain 4 seats this time while the Congress will lose 4.
South Gujarat: The BJP once again will prove its strength here by bagging 24 to 26 out of the 35 seats, while the Congress will end with 7 to 9 seats. This will mean a gain for BJP as it is seen to capture 8 more seats compared to 2007.
Final seats tally predicted:
BJP 120 to 131 seats
Congress 40 to 52 seats
Others 7 to 10 seats
So, Gujarat is almost likely to see Narendra Modi return to power with maybe, his biggest win.
- Dayanand Nene
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